South Africa’s new-vehicle sales fell 2.0% year on year in October 2023. Here’s your full overview, including Mzansi’s most popular brands, best-selling vehicles and much more…
In October 2023, South Africa’s new-vehicle industry registered a year-on-year drop of 2.0% to finish on 45 445 units. That made it 3 consecutive months of year-on-year declines in sales (and the 5th drop overall in 2023), with October furthermore representing a 1.3% fall compared with September 2023’s effort of 46 021 registrations.
Industry representative body Naamsa said the “persisting economic strain on businesses and consumers continued to impact directly on new-vehicle sales”.
Out of the total reported industry sales of 45 445 vehicles, Naamsa estimated 36 468 units (or 80.2%) represented sales via the dealer channel, while 12.9% were sales to the vehicle-rental industry, 4.1% to government and 2.8% to industry corporate fleets.
In October 2023, the new passenger-vehicle market registered a 3.5% year-on-year fall to 29 912 units (with sales to the rental industry accounting for 18.3%). Even the usually robust light-commercial vehicle (LCV) segment couldn’t escape the decline, with sales in this space sliding 3.0% to 12 361 units.
It was only the medium-commercial vehicle segment (up 8.3% to 807 units) and heavy truck-and-bus segment (up 26% to 2 365 units) that achieved year-on-year growth in the domestic market, though these are relatively low-volume spaces.
Meanwhile, export sales climbed a whopping 39.5% year on year to 40 302 units, though Naamsa cautioned that October 2022 represented a low base thanks to the Transnet strike of the time (and the “consequent supply chain disruptions”). Still, vehicle exports year to date were a considerable 12.7% ahead of the same period in 2022.
Lebo Gaoaketse, Head of Marketing and Communication at WesBank, was a little more optimistic about the market’s overall performance in October 2023, saying it should not be seen “as a curse”.
He pointed out South Africa’s new-vehicle market showed year-to-date growth of 2.1% to 446 877 units compared with the first 10 months of last year, representing a slow recovery. “This is a healthy 9 027 more new vehicles sold so far this year than 2022, which remains a positive step in the market’s recovery.”
“Looking at sales for the 12 months from November 2022 to October 2023 compared to the same period a year previously shows a market performing 4.1% better. This displays the sensitivity of the market to impacting forces and the need for industry to take a longer view of growth as the market recovers,” Gaoaketse added.
Thembinkosi Pantsi, National Vice-Chairperson of the National Automobile Dealers’ Association (NADA), further said declines in key market segments were “generally smaller than the industry had anticipated”.
“It’s quite clear that the ongoing buydown trend continues as the Chinese brands gain more momentum, alongside affordable mobility options from other brands. The tough economic conditions, policy uncertainty and the high cost of living are massive problems. The increase in new car prices on certain brands has also contributed to the drop in October numbers, leading consumers to opt for demo models or pre-owned vehicles,” suggested Pantsi.
“Nevertheless, we were surprised and proud that the retail sales channel, which sells vehicles through franchised dealers, managed to sell 36 468 units, accounting for 80.2% of the total for October,” he added, before pointing to the positive performances of the medium-truck and heavy truck-and-bus segments as a “measure of underlying confidence in the business sector”.
New-vehicle sales summary for October 2023
- Aggregate new-vehicle sales of 45 445 units decreased by 2.0% (905 units) compared to October 2022.
- New passenger-vehicle sales of 29 912 units decreased by 3.5% (1 068 units) compared to October 2022.
- New light-commercial vehicle sales of 12 361 units decreased by 3.0% (387 units) compared to October 2022.
- Export sales of 40 302 units increased by 39.5% (11 411 units) compared to October 2022.
10 best-selling automakers in South Africa in October 2023
Though Toyota experienced a small month-on-month fall, its tally of 12 440 units (or 27.4% of the total market) again put it far ahead of the 2nd-placed Volkswagen Group, which nevertheless improved its showing to 6 595 units. Suzuki (4 480 units) continued its remarkably consistent performance to again complete the podium, setting a new dealer-sales record of 3 857 units in the process.
After surrendering 4th place to Ford in September, Hyundai reclaimed this spot in October 2023, finishing the month on 2 638 units. That saw the Blue Oval brand fall a place to 5th, on 2 318 units. Nissan (2 178 units) and Isuzu (1 848 units) held steady in 6th and 7th, respectively.
Meanwhile, Renault (1 606 units) moved up a position to 8th, forcing Kia (1 417 units) down a spot to 9th. Chinese firm Haval completed the table, finishing the month on 1 389 units. A mere 87 registrations behind on 1 302 units, Chery again had to settle for 11th position, ahead of the BMW Group (with a Naamsa estimate of 1 179 units), Mahindra (827 units), Stellantis (778 units) and Mercedes-Benz (669 units).
1. Toyota – 12 440 units
2. Volkswagen Group – 6 595 units
3. Suzuki – 4 480 units
4. Hyundai – 2 638 units
5. Ford – 2 318 units
6. Nissan – 2 178 units
7. Isuzu – 1 848 units
8. Renault – 1 606 units
9. Kia – 1 417 units
10. Haval – 1 389 units
10 best-selling vehicles in South Africa in October 2023
As was the case in the preceding month, the Toyota Hilux (3 110 units) led the charge in October 2023 as the only model to breach the 3 000-unit mark – a feat the Prospecton-built bakkie has now achieved a remarkable 6 times this year. The Kariega-produced Volkswagen Polo Vivo – with 2 280 registrations, of which 796 were sales to the rental industry – again placed 2nd.
The Toyota Corolla Cross (2 100 units) climbed a place to 3rd, which saw the Silverton-manufactured Ford Ranger (1 853 units) slip a ranking to 4th. The Toyota Hi-Ace (1 546 units) moved up a spot to 5th, while the Struandale-made Isuzu D-Max (1 464 units) dropped a position to 6th.
Mzansi’s best-selling imported vehicle in October 2023 was the Toyota Starlet (1 363 units), which gained a spot month on month to end in 7th. The Suzuki Swift (1 248 units) was down a place to 8th, just ahead of the Volkswagen Polo hatch (1 235 units), which retained 9th. The soon-to-depart Nissan NP200 (961 units) again completed the table in 10th.
So, what about vehicles bubbling under in October? Well, the Chery Tiggo 4 Pro (856 units) was just outside of the top 10 once more, while the Toyota Vitz (779 units) – currently billed as South Africa’s cheapest new vehicle thanks to an ongoing “deal assist” promotion – achieved its best showing yet, with 425 units sold through the rental channel alone. The Nissan Magnite (715 units), Hyundai Grand i10 (680 units) and Renault Kwid (661 units) completed the top 15.
1. Toyota Hilux – 3 110 units
2. Volkswagen Polo Vivo – 2 280 units
3. Toyota Corolla Cross – 2 100 units
4. Ford Ranger – 1 853 units
5. Toyota Hi-Ace – 1 546 units
6. Isuzu D-Max – 1 464 units
7. Toyota Starlet – 1 363 units
8. Suzuki Swift – 1 248 units
9. Volkswagen Polo (hatch) – 1 235 units
10. Nissan NP200 – 961 units
Top 9 vehicles exported from SA in October 2023
For the 6th month in a row, the Volkswagen Polo hatchback topped the export charts, with 12 309 Kariega-built examples shipped off in October 2023. The Toyota Hilux’s export figure climbed to 7 149 units, allowing the Prospecton-built bakkie to retain the runner-up place in this space, ahead of the Silverton-made Ford Ranger (6 544 units).
Yet again, the Isuzu D-Max, Nissan Navara, Toyota Fortuner, Toyota Corolla Cross, Nissan NP200 and Toyota Corolla Quest made up the export numbers. We should point out BMW and Mercedes-Benz did not submit detailed figures, so it’s unclear how many new X3 and C-Class sedan units were exported during the month (but for the record, Naamsa’s estimates for October 2023 stood at 5 500 and 7 364 units, respectively).
1. Volkswagen Polo (hatch) – 12 309 units
2. Toyota Hilux – 7 149 units
3. Ford Ranger – 6 544 units
4. Isuzu D-Max – 544 units
5. Nissan Navara – 327 units
6. Toyota Fortuner – 208 units
7. Toyota Corolla Cross – 116 units
8. Nissan NP200 – 11 units
9. Toyota Corolla Quest – 6 units
Vehicle-sales outlook in SA for the rest of 2023
With just 2 months to go, what’s next for South Africa’s new-vehicle market in 2023? Well, Naamsa says the country’s “weak economic growth rate, although still marginally positive, remains a key challenge for the new-vehicle market going forward in view of the close correlation between new-vehicle sales and the GDP growth rate”.
“Alongside faster economic growth, moderate inflation and lower interest rates would go a long way to support the new-vehicle market over the medium term,” the industry body points out, adding vehicle export momentum “remains upward for the balance of the year” despite a global economic outlook which “remains clouded by risks to the inflation trajectory”.
Meanwhile, WesBank’s Gaoaketse says the recovery of the market “continues to gain traction”, returning to pre-pandemic levels and sale volumes last experienced in 2019.
“More room for optimism includes levels of demand that exceed market performance. Despite the decline in volumes, the appetite for a new vehicle is strong, with applications up nearly 7% year-on-year,” says Gaoaketse, adding that this “pent-up demand” provides opportunities on which manufacturers can capitalise with incentivised deals, “if banks can accommodate consumer affordability”.
“There is no denying the economic headwinds that continue to face South Africans and the impact these will have on purchase decisions in the new-vehicle market. The market remains under pressure, but at relatively stable and reassuring levels,” says Gaoaketse.
Finally, NADA’s Pantsi cautions the macro-economic climate in South Africa is currently not conducive to “consumers making significant purchasing decisions”, pointing to “key issues” such as unemployment, poverty and inequality, along with daily disruptions such as “frequent power outages” and “water shortages and intermittent supply”.
However, Pantsi likewise remains optimistic, saying: “As we enter the last 2 months of 2023, we are still 2.1% ahead of 2022 in terms of our year-to-date total sales figures. We are confident that we should be able to maintain a positive figure at the end of December”.
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