South Africa’s new-vehicle sales fell 4.1% year on year in September 2023. Here’s your comprehensive overview, including Mzansi’s most popular brands, best-selling vehicles and plenty more…
In September 2023, South Africa’s new-vehicle industry registered a year-on-year fall of 4.1% to finish on 46 021 units. While that made it 2 consecutive months of year-on-year declines in sales, it’s worth pointing out September at least represented a marginal (though not even 1%) increase over August 2023’s effort of 45 679 registrations.
Industry representative body Naamsa said “various external business factors”, such as rising fuel prices, “ongoing challenges” in transport logistics, Eskom’s “incapacity to meet industry’s energy demands”, the volatility in commodity prices and the overall “intricate external environment”, again exerted “significant pressure” on the market’s key performance indicators.
As such, export sales saw a decline of 12.6% to 36 247 units in September 2023, though this part of the industry was nevertheless still 8.3% ahead compared with the same period in 2022, with the year-to-date total reaching 285 200 units. At 401 315 units, Mzansi’s new-vehicle sales over the opening 9 months of 2023 were also ahead (by 2.5%) of the equivalent reporting period last year.
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“Despite these challenging market conditions, the industry has displayed a modest yet commendable resilience in year-to-date new-vehicle sales and export performances for September 2023,” Naamsa pointed out.
Overall, out of the total reported industry sales of 46 021 vehicles, Naamsa estimated 37 149 units (or 80.7%) represented sales via the dealership channel, while 13.6% were sales to the vehicle-rental industry, 2.9% to industry corporate fleets and 2.8% to government.
In September 2023, SA’s new passenger-vehicle market registered a year-on-year decline of 8.4% to end on 29 669 units, though was well supported by rental fleet buyers, with the latter accounting for 18.9% of those sales. Yet again, the only sector to experience growth was the light-commercial vehicle segment, which enjoyed a 4.6% year-on-year increase to 13 169 units in September 2023.
According to Lebo Gaoaketse, Head of Marketing and Communication at WesBank, September 2023’s sales performance suggested “uncertainty” was “getting the better of consumers and business”.
“September sales show the biggest decline in market performance year-on-year since December 2021. However, comparisons remain theoretical given the market’s prolonged recovery from the pandemic and a broader context and assessment is necessary for a more realistic view of activity and sentiment,” said Gaoaketse.
“The fact that there are now 2 consecutive months of strain – September seemingly bigger than August – provides some measure of concern for new vehicle sales. But it is the signs of the trend that are concerning, not the outright numbers,” he added.
Meanwhile, Brandon Cohen, chairperson of the National Automobile Dealers’ Association (NADA), said retailers were witnessing “strong evidence” of pent-up demand for new vehicles, but added many consumers were adopting a “wait-and-see” approach when making their purchasing decisions.
“Sales remain under pressure, and September was generally a challenging trading month, although there were some sparks of positivity. Applications to financial institutions for financing were slightly up, as were approvals, as consumers test the waters regarding their creditworthiness for a loan,” explained Cohen.
New-vehicle sales summary for September 2023
- Aggregate new-vehicle sales of 46 021 units decreased by 4.1% (1 963 units) compared to September 2022.
- New passenger-vehicle sales of 29 669 units decreased by 8.4% (2 723 units) compared to September 2022.
- New light-commercial vehicle sales of 13 169 units increased by 4.6% (581 units) compared to September 2022.
- Export sales of 36 247 units decreased by 12.6% (5 217 units) compared to September 2022.
10 best-selling automakers in South Africa in September 2023
Another month, another example of crushing sales dominance from Toyota. The Japanese automaker finished September 2023 on a heady 12 704 units (or a market share of 27.6%), even more than it managed in August. The Volkswagen Group was again 2nd, though likewise enjoyed some month-on-month growth to reach 6 316 registrations, while Suzuki (4 478 units) again placed 3rd.
Ford (2 807 units) retained the 4th position it grabbed in August 2023, which meant Hyundai (2 665 units) again had to settle for 5th place. Similarly, Nissan (2 130 units) clung to 6th, while Isuzu (1 990 units) held steady in 7th.
Meanwhile, Kia recorded a tally of 1 703 units, which was enough to lift the Korean firm off the bottom of the table and secure it a more comfortable 8th spot. With 1 702 registrations, French brand Renault was a single unit behind in 9th, while Chinese contender Haval (1 532 units) dropped 2 rankings to complete the table in 10th.
After breaking into the top 10 in July 2023, Chery (1 240 units) had to be content with 11th place once again, though that still put the Chinese automaker some way ahead of the BMW Group (1 037 units), Mahindra (784 units) and Mercedes-Benz (692 units).
1. Toyota – 12 704 units
2. Volkswagen Group – 6 316 units
3. Suzuki – 4 478 units
4. Ford – 2 807 units
5. Hyundai – 2 665 units
6. Nissan – 2 130 units
7. Isuzu – 1 990 units
8. Kia – 1 703 units
9. Renault – 1 702 units
10. Haval – 1 532 units
10 best-selling vehicles in South Africa in September 2023
Yet again, the Toyota Hilux led the sales charge, finishing September 2023 with a whopping 3 249 registrations (the 5th time this year the Prospecton-built bakkie has breached the 3 000-unit mark). The Kariega-manufactured Volkswagen Polo Vivo (2 698 units) again placed 2nd (bolstered by 1 200 sales to the rental industry), with the Silverton-produced Ford Ranger (2 413 units) likewise holding steady in 3rd.
There was no movement across the next 3 positions either, with the Toyota Corolla Cross (2 259 units), Isuzu D-Max (1 639 units) and Toyota Hi-Ace (1 462 units) again ranking 4th, 5th and 6th, respectively. That meant the top 6 once more comprised exclusively locally built models.
Meanwhile, the Suzuki Swift (1 291 units) – which ranked as the best-selling imported vehicle in September 2023 – climbed a place to 7th, pushing its nose ahead the likewise Indian-sourced Toyota Starlet (1 247 units), which slipped a position to 8th. The locally built Volkswagen Polo hatchback (1 148 units) and soon-to-be-axed Nissan NP200 (997 units) rounded out the table.
So, what about models that were bubbling under in September 2023? Well, the recently facelifted Hyundai Grand i10 (949 units) range – which now includes sedan derivatives, along with hatch and light-commercial panel-van variants – was next, ahead of the Toyota Fortuner (893 units), Chery Tiggo 4 Pro (858 units), Nissan Magnite (797 units) and Kia Sonet (743 units). Special mention must also go to the new Suzuki Fronx, which hit a total of 527 registrations – all via the dealer channel – in its 1st full month on sale.
1. Toyota Hilux – 3 249 units
2. Volkswagen Polo Vivo – 2 698 units
3. Ford Ranger – 2 413 units
4. Toyota Corolla Cross – 2 259 units
5. Isuzu D-Max – 1 639 units
6. Toyota Hi-Ace – 1 462 units
7. Suzuki Swift – 1 291 units
8. Toyota Starlet – 1 247 units
9. Volkswagen Polo (hatch) – 1 148 units
10. Nissan NP200 – 997 units
Top 10 vehicles exported from South Africa in September 2023
For the 5th month on the trot, the Volkswagen Polo hatchback topped the export charts, with a whopping 11 402 examples shipped off from the Kariega factory in September 2023. The Rosslyn-built BMW X3 was 2nd on 6 230 units, with the Munich-based automaker reporting detailed sales figures for the 1st time this quarter.
Meanwhile, the Toyota Hilux (5 741 units) pushed ahead of the Ford Ranger (5 536 units) in the exports race in September, with the popular Prospecton-built and Silverton-made bakkies settling for 3rd and 4th, respectively.
Once again, the Nissan Navara, Isuzu D-Max, Toyota Fortuner, Toyota Corolla Cross, Nissan NP200 and Toyota Corolla Quest made up the export numbers. As always, we should point out Mercedes-Benz did not submit detailed figures, so it’s not clear how many new C-Class sedan units were exported during the month (but for the record, Naamsa’s estimate for September 2023 stood at 5 905 units).
1. Volkswagen Polo (hatch) – 11 402 units
2. BMW X3 – 6 230 units
3. Toyota Hilux – 5 741 units
4. Ford Ranger – 5 536 units
5. Nissan Navara – 427 units
6. Isuzu D-Max – 413 units
7. Toyota Fortuner – 148 units
8. Toyota Corolla Cross – 129 units
9. Nissan NP200 – 25 units
10. Toyota Corolla Quest – 3 units
Vehicle-sales outlook in SA for the remainder of 2023
So, what does the future hold for South Africa’s new-vehicle market? Well, Naamsa warns the automotive industry “continues to grapple with concerns over consumer affordability”, despite the fact the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) maintained the repurchase rate at 8.25% last month.
“The most recent SARB report indicates a 0.3% contraction in household consumption expenditure, with household debt surpassing household disposable income by 62.5% in the 2nd quarter of 2023. Additionally, the industry faces potential upward pressures stemming from an elevated inflation outlook, fluctuations in the exchange rate, rising fuel prices and increased energy costs,” the industry representative body cautions.
“On the positive side, Stats SA reported that the manufacturing and finance industries were the core drivers of GDP growth in the 2nd quarter of 2023, recorded at 0.6%. Motor vehicles, parts and accessories, and other transport equipment grew by 9.5%, contributing 1.0% to the GDP. This unequivocally demonstrates that, despite the less-favourable economic prospects, the outlook for the South African vehicle market in 2023 remains distinctly optimistic.”
Naamsa adds the year-to-date new-vehicle sales volumes and exports have “held their own, indicating a positive trajectory” toward achieving the organisation’s annual forecasts of 563 000 units for the former and 380 900 for the latter.
Meanwhile, WesBank’s Gaoaketse says while the “cold data shows 2 months of negative growth, a market of 46 000 units is in line with volumes during 2019”.
“This indicates a continued resilience and sustained slow recovery as experienced and predicted in the aftermath of the pandemic. Whilst there is no doubt that the market has major headwinds to overcome, new-vehicle sales continue to defy the odds,” he points out.
“The reprieve in September from further interest-rate hikes will be welcomed in constrained household budgets. But other economic pressures from fuel prices, inflation, restricted income growth and the energy crisis will continue to play on consumer and business confidence and sentiment to make new-vehicle purchase decisions.”
According to NADA’s Cohen, there are currently (and will continue to be) attractive deals on offer for new-car buyers, despite the challenges facing the industry.
“Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), distributors and importers have begun offering a wide range of incentives and discounts on vehicles, from luxury to budget cars. Banks are also introducing innovative finance schemes to stimulate buying activity. The market currently offers favourable opportunities for buyers seeking a good deal,” concludes Cohen.
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