South Africa’s new-vehicle market started off the year on a negative note, registering its 6th consecutive year-on-year decline in January 2024. Here’s your full overview, including most popular brands, best-selling cars and more…
It may be a new year, but the local market’s slump continues. Yes, January 2024 was the South African new-vehicle industry’s 6th consecutive month of year-on-year decline. The opening month of 2024 saw a total of 41 636 units registered, translating to a 3.8% drop compared with the corresponding month in 2023.
That said, January 2024’s final tally at least represented a month-on-month improvement of 3.2% compared with December 2023’s effort of 40 329 units (though it’s worth keeping in mind there are traditionally fewer trading days in December). What about exports? Well, this part of the industry also saw a decline, falling 2.1% to 20 684 units in January.
“The lingering effects of cost-of-living increases, dampened consumer- and business confidence combined with the country’s port challenges and persistent load-shedding continued to undermine the new-vehicle market’s recovery path”, said Mikel Mabasa, CEO of Naamsa.
Out of the total reported industry sales in January 2024, Naamsa estimated that 35 108 units (or 84.3%) represented registrations via the dealer channel, while 11.5% were sales to the vehicle-rental industry, 2.2% to industry corporate fleets and 2.0% to government.
In January 2024, Mzansi’s new passenger-vehicle market registered a year-on-year fall of 6.7% to finish on 28 790 units (with vehicle-rental sales accounting for a strong 15% of that figure). Meanwhile, the light-commercial vehicle segment experienced a marginal increase of 2.3% to end the month on 10 871 units.
Brandon Cohen, Chairperson of the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), said the “flat” performance of SA’s new-vehicle industry in January 2024 was “expected”.
“It seems the dreaded ‘Januworry’ has taken effect with a further decline in consumer affordability due to the cost-of-living increases and the political climate uncertainty of an election year. Even the fact that the vehicle-rental industry bought 11.5% of the total vehicles sold in January could not prevent another month of decline,” pointed out Cohen.
Lebo Gaoaketse, Head of Marketing and Communication at WesBank, added that January’s “weaker performance continued the trend in declining year-on-year sales the market has experienced since August”, but said this showing “should consider more realistic market figures to compare against the previous year than the skewed data since the pandemic years”.
“Indebted consumers will have been relieved by the 4th consecutive hold on interest rates during January, which will continue to help buying power in the market and hopefully increase levels of demand as buying confidence restores,” Gaoaketse said.
New-vehicle sales summary for January 2024
- Aggregate new-vehicle sales of 41 636 units decreased by 3.8% (1 658 units) compared to January 2023.
- New passenger-vehicle sales of 28 790 units decreased by 6.7% (2 073 units) compared to January 2023.
- New light-commercial vehicle sales of 10 871 units increased by 2.3% (248 units) compared to January 2023.
- Export sales of 20 242 units decreased by 2.1% (442 units) compared to January 2023.
10 best-selling automakers in South Africa in January 2024
It was business as usual at the very top of the pile, with Toyota finishing January 2024 out in front on 10 855 units (down 3.1% on December 2023’s effort). The Volkswagen Group (5 522 units) held steady in 2nd, but Suzuki ran the German company extremely close last month, finishing in 3rd on 5 235 units (just 287 registrations off the pace). That’s by far Suzuki Auto SA’s best month yet and the 1st time the Japanese firm has breached the 5 000-unit mark.
Meanwhile, Ford (2 420 units) and Nissan (2 315 units) each climbed a position to 4th and 5th, respectively, which saw Hyundai (2 185 units) slip 2 rankings to 6th. Isuzu (1 610 units) moved up 2 spots to 7th, while Haval remained in 8th with 1 463 registrations.
The other big news from top 10 was a surge from Chery, which finished the opening month of 2024 on a healthy 1 425 units (or just 38 sales behind fellow Chinese brand Haval). That was more than enough for Chery to crack the table for the 2nd time – having previously made the top 10 in July 2023 – slotting in ahead of Renault (1 411 units). For the record, the French firm slid 3 positions to cling to the final spot on the list.
That meant Chery effectively booted Kia (1 344 units) out of the top 10, with the South Korean company having to settle for 11th ahead of Indian manufacturer Mahindra (878 units), the BMW Group (821 units), Mercedes-Benz (a Naamsa-estimated 505 units) and Stellantis (423 units).
1. Toyota – 10 855 units
2. Volkswagen Group – 5 522 units
3. Suzuki – 5 235 units
4. Ford – 2 420 units
5. Nissan – 2 315 units
6. Hyundai – 2 185 units
7. Isuzu – 1 610 units
8. Haval – 1 463 units
9. Chery – 1 425 units
10. Renault – 1 411 units
15 best-selling vehicles in South Africa in January 2024
As you’ve no doubt guessed, the Toyota Hilux – South Africa’s best-selling vehicle overall in 2023 – picked up right where it left off. Yes, the Prospecton-built bakkie topped the charts once more, finishing January 2024 on 2 645 units. The Kariega-produced Volkswagen Polo Vivo (2 034 units) wasn’t far behind in 2nd, with the Silverton-manufactured Ford Ranger (1 914 units) again completing the podium.
While the likewise locally built Toyota Corolla Cross held steady in 4th position with 1 660 units, the Indian-built Suzuki Swift (1 566 units) – Mzansi’s highest-ranking imported vehicle once again – rocketed up 4 places to snatch 5th, helping drive its maker’s record month.
The Suzuki-built Toyota Starlet (1 479 units) climbed 2 places to 6th, while the Struandale-made Isuzu D-Max remained in 7th despite growing its registrations 313 units to 1 336 units, month on month. The Prospecton-built Toyota Hi-Ace (1 229 units) slipped 2 spots to 8th, while the SA-made Volkswagen Polo hatchback (1 079 units) returned to the table in 9th. The Toyota Fortuner (974 units) also made a comeback, completing the top 10 as the 8th locally built model.
What about the vehicles just outside the top 10 in January 2024? Well, the soon-to-depart Nissan NP200 (969 units) again failed to hit 4 figures so had to be content with 11th, with the Chery Tiggo 4 Pro (914 units) close behind in 12th. Next came the Nissan Magnite (843 units), followed by the Hyundai Grand i10 (783 units) and finally the Suzuki Ertiga (657 units).
1. Toyota Hilux – 2 645 units
2. Volkswagen Polo Vivo – 2 034 units
3. Ford Ranger – 1 914 units
4. Toyota Corolla Cross – 1 660 units
5. Suzuki Swift – 1 566 units
6. Toyota Starlet – 1 479 units
7. Isuzu D-Max – 1 336 units
8. Toyota Hi-Ace – 1 229 units
9. Volkswagen Polo (hatch) – 1 079 units
10. Toyota Fortuner – 974 units
11. Nissan NP200 – 969 units
12. Chery Tiggo 4 Pro – 914 units
13. Nissan Magnite – 843 units
14. Hyundai Grand i10 – 783 units
15. Suzuki Ertiga – 657 units
Vehicle-sales outlook in SA for the rest of 2024
So, what does the remainder of 2024 hold for South Africa’s new-vehicle market? Well, Naamsa hints that January 2024’s “weak performance” could be a sign of things to come, saying it was “intricately linked to the major economic headwinds that shaped the market’s performance in 2023, including highly indebted consumers, high interest rates, high food and fuel inflation, load-shedding and port backlogs and delays”.
“South Africa’s economic growth outlook for 2024, at 1.2%, although stronger than in 2023, remains a key challenge for the new-vehicle market going forward in view of the close correlation between new-vehicle sales and the GDP growth rate,” adds the industry representative body.
“The year is also marked by elections, not just in South Africa but also in other major markets, introducing an element of economic uncertainty. A start of an interest-rate cutting cycle, likely to commence during the 2nd half of the year but preferably earlier, accompanied by easing core and food inflation, and improvements in the country’s energy and logistics infrastructure could provide a much-needed relief for consumers and subsequently stir up some momentum in the new vehicle market.”
Meanwhile, NADA’s Cohen says “there is now a lot of focus from dealers, manufacturers, distributors, component manufacturers and consumers on what the government will have to say at the President’s State of the Nation Address on 8 February and the Finance Minister’s National Budget Speech on 21 February”.
“Hopefully, there will be some good news that could lend to an improvement in consumer sentiment or, from an industry perspective, more certainty about the regulatory framework for selling and manufacturing of new-energy vehicles in the Budget Speech,” Cohen concludes.
Finally, WesBank’s Gaoaketse says motorists “remain under pressure” in the total mobility basket. “With interest rates stable, but still high, fuel-price increases expected during February, consumer price inflation still on the high end of the target band, and elections looming, economic uncertainty is the reality for most households and businesses and potential new-vehicle buyers will remain wary of big financial commitments.”
However, Gaoaketse says he expects numerous opportunities to exist from renewed efforts to stimulate demand in the market: “Banks may increase their risk appetite with lower quoted rates on deals to capture market share. Brands and dealers will also be hungry to convert sales, offering enticing incentives that may provide an opportunity for the market to remain buoyant.”
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