July 2026 fuel price prediction

It’s the halfway point in June and the mid-month fuel price prediction has just come in. It looks like good news at the pumps is likely for July…

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) reveals a sharp turnaround in international petroleum markets. While substantial market over-recoveries point toward a massive potential drop in the basic fuel price, the scheduled reapplication of the General Fuel Levy at the end of June will offset most of these gains for July 2026.

Here is the mid-month data breakdown, based on averages from 29 May 2026 to 16 June 2026.

The drivers: Stronger Rand and collapsing oil prices

The extreme price spikes seen in May, which were driven by the Iran crisis and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have eased significantly. International product prices have plunged, driving the bulk of the current over-recovery.

• International product prices: Lower global oil and refined product costs contribute between R2.57 and R4.80 per litre to the positive over-recovery.
• The exchange rate: The Rand has strengthened, averaging R16.18 to the US Dollar over the review period. This adds an extra 15 to 19 cents per litre to the price reduction.

Without regulatory intervention, motorists would be looking at a basic fuel price drop of over R2.70 for petrol and over R4.40 for diesel.

The General Fuel Levy factor

The temporary relief measures introduced by the government, which slashed the General Fuel Levy by R3.00/l for petrol and R3.93/l for diesel, expired at the end of May. Half of the levy was reintroduced at the beginning of June, with the remainder to be implemented at the beginning of July.

Despite this, fuel prices are on track for a reasonable decrease at the end of the month.

Projected July 2026 fuel price changes (mid-month outlook)

The table below calculates the net projected adjustments for Gauteng pump prices (petrol) and wholesale prices (diesel and paraffin) based on the 16 June data.