November 2024 was the SA new-vehicle market’s best month of the year so far, with 5 top-10 brands hitting 2024 highs. Here’s your overview, including Mzansi’s best-selling automakers…
South Africa’s new-vehicle market recorded a 2nd consecutive year-on-year increase in monthly sales, with local registrations in November 2024 growing 8.1% to 48 585 units. Moreover, November was the best month of the year so far, beating October’s tally of 47 942 units. According to Naamsa, this showing “could signal the start of the long-awaited upward trend” in the market.
The positive local sales performance, however, did not extend to the export market, with 30 431 units – a year-on-year decline of 28.6% – shipped from Mzansi’s shores in November 2024. So, over the opening 11 months of the year, vehicle exports are 23.9% down compared with the same reporting period in 2023.
But back to the local market. Out of the total reported industry sales in November 2024, Naamsa estimated that 81.2% represented registrations via the dealer channel, while an again-considerable 14.6% were sales to the vehicle-rental industry, 2.4% to government and 1.8% to industry corporate fleets.
As was the case in October, the new passenger-vehicle segment was the catalyst for the local market’s growth, improving 20.0% year on year to 35 101 units in November 2024. Again boosted by rental sales (which contributed a significant 19.5%), that figure even exceeded October’s effort, which was the highest new passenger-vehicle tally since October 2019.
Yet again, the new light-commercial vehicle segment suffered a year-on-year decline, with sales in this space dropping 16.3% to 10 827 units in November 2024. As we’ve pointed out in previous instances, this fall was no doubt amplified by the discontinuation of the Nissan NP200.
Brandon Cohen, Chairperson of the National Automobile Dealers’ Association (NADA), said the commercial-vehicle market continued to “reflect the economic challenges facing businesses”, adding the latest figures highlighted “the cautious sentiment within the business sector despite lower consumer inflation and 2 interest rate cuts this year”.
Commenting on the overall market’s “robust” performance in November 2024, Cohen suggested this was not only “bolstered by a strong contribution from the rental market” but also “fuelled by growing consumer demand”.
“November is traditionally challenging for the motor industry, as many consumers postpone purchases until January to benefit from new-year registrations or await year-end bonuses, typically paid in December. Despite these factors, dealers have navigated the month with careful strategies, considering the competitive environment,” he explained.
Lebo Gaoaketse, Head of Marketing and Communication at WesBank, pointed out that while November represented the largest market growth of the year thus far, the industry was by no means out of the woods.
“November sales are the best performance for the market since March last year [50 114 units]. But there is a lot more momentum to create before the country’s automotive industry can rest easier on a recovery path.
“Consumers remain under severe household budget constraints, displayed in 2 key pieces of WesBank data. The average deal size financed by the bank is 6% lower year-on-year for new vehicles, indicating affordability concerns amidst new-car price inflation. In addition, despite sales being significantly higher than a year ago, demand as measured by applications has softened substantially,” Gaoaketse added.
New-vehicle sales summary for November 2024
- Aggregate new-vehicle sales of 48 585 units increased by 8.1% (3 658 units) compared to November 2023.
- New passenger-vehicle sales of 35 101 units increased by 20% (5 849 units) compared to November 2023.
- New light-commercial vehicle sales of 10 827 units decreased by 16.3% (2 110 units) compared to November 2023.
- Export sales of 30 431 units decreased by 28.6% (12 110 units) compared to November 2023.
10 best-selling automakers in SA in November 2024
With only December to come, Toyota recorded its strongest month of 2024 thus far, registering 12 106 units (including the Lexus and Hino brands) across the country in November 2024. Meanwhile, the Volkswagen Group (6 321 units, including the Audi brand) and Suzuki (6 004 units) held steady in 2nd and 3rd, respectively.
Ford (3 071 units) breached the 3 000-unit barrier for the first time this year, retaining 4th position and keeping its nose ahead of Hyundai (2 940 units), which likewise put in its best effort of 2024 so far to stay in 5th. Isuzu (2 061 units) remained in 6th and Chery (2 006 units) held onto 7th place.
Though GWM (1 847 units) also reported its strongest showing of the year thus far, it wasn’t enough to shift it from 8th spot. Therefore, the only movement in the top 10 came courtesy of Kia (1 662 units), which – also with its highest tally, year to date – climbed a ranking to 9th after returning to the table in October. That meant Renault (1 505 units) slipped a place to 10th.
Mahindra (1 368 units) again fell just short of a top-10 ranking in November 2024, though stayed ahead of Nissan (1 326 units), with the Japanese firm having to settle for a lowly 12th place once more. The BMW Group (1 083 units, by Naamsa’s estimates) was again 13th, while Omoda & Jaecoo (711 units) again grabbed 14th, finishing ahead of Stellantis (553 units). Mercedes-Benz thus fell from the top 15.
1. Toyota – 12 106 units
2. Volkswagen Group – 6 321 units
3. Suzuki – 6 004 units
4. Ford – 3 071 units
5. Hyundai – 2 940 units
6. Isuzu – 2 061 units
7. Chery – 2 006 units
8. GWM – 1 847 units
9. Kia – 1 662 units
10. Renault – 1 505 units
Sales outlook in SA heading towards 2025
With a month of 2024 to go, what’s next for South Africa’s new-vehicle market? Well, Naamsa points to the “robust” new passenger-car sales market as a “shining beacon” in recent months, thanks in part to “sound seasonal sales to the vehicle rental industry”. This, says the industry representative body, along with 5 consecutive months of lower consumer inflation and a 2nd interest-rate cut of 25 basis points, “sparked positive sentiment”.
Thanks to this strong year-end performance, new vehicle sales are now just 3.5% below the corresponding period in 2023, though Naamsa says the market is “unlikely to return to the pre-pandemic level” by the time 2024 is done and dusted. Still, it adds that further anticipated interest-rate cuts in the new year will “support vehicle affordability across all the various segments”.
Meanwhile, NADA’s Cohen suggests there is certainly space for “cautious optimism” for a stronger December to close out the year.
“With some stock available in key segments and marketing support from manufacturers expected, there is potential for a positive finish to the year. The strong rental industry sales signal a promising festive season, which we hope will set the stage for a better trading year in 2025,” says Cohen.
WesBank’s Gaoaketse adds that “consumers have welcomed the 2nd interest-rate cut and will be hoping for the trend to continue”.
“In addition, the energy crisis is seemingly under control, inflation lower for 5 consecutive months, the currency performing better and fuel prices contributing to budget savings – but all this positive impetus will take time to filter through to overall market performance and general consumer affordability.
“The market’s year-to-date performance remains the reality check for the industry. We continue to be on the slow path of recovery and whilst positive market growth for 2 months should be celebrated, cyclically softer December sales should be expected as consumers delay purchase decisions into the new year. However, the market remains primed for some stability during 2025 if October and November performances can be sustained,” concludes Gaoaketse.
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